Science Corner 07 | The Hidden Cost of Tariffs
This week’s Science Corner dives into the far-reaching consequences that U.S. tariff policy towards China is creating for the dietary supplement industry, and the impact that may have on the quality of your supplements.
While framed as tools of economic diplomacy and national security, these tariff measures are hitting the nutritional products sector hard—stacking up costs, bottlenecking supply chains, and potentially reshaping the market.
As the costs of your daily multivitamin, pre-workout powder, or Vitamin D rise, so does the risk created by manufacturer corner-cutting along with the overall consumer shift to cheaper, lower-quality products. Read on to understand the implications.
A Multi-Layered Tariff Shock
Supplement companies aren’t just facing one new tariff—they’re facing several, applied in layers. Here's how they stack up, based on data provided by the United Natural Products Alliance (UNPA), a trade association of ~100 leading supplement brands:
General import duties (7.5–25%)
Section 301 tariffs from earlier U.S.-China trade actions
A sweeping 125% tariff under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), introduced recently in 2025
Combined, these can push total tariff rates for common dietary ingredients well over 150%, and in some cases as high as 176%.
Ingredients like calcium, magnesium, zinc, iron, and even essential proteins such as soy isolate and pea protein now face these staggering costs at the port of entry.
The Real-World Price Tag
This isn’t theoretical. Companies are already reporting price increases of 2–3% at the retail level for basic vitamins. However, the jump is significantly more severe for botanicals and herbal supplements, with some seeing price hikes of up to 60%.
Retailers may absorb some of these increases temporarily, but over time, the costs get passed down. Consumers will notice higher prices, reduced availability, or both.
Tariffs Create Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Behind these rising costs lies a deeper structural problem: China’s dominance of the global supply chain for nutritional ingredients.
China currently supplies:
93% of vitamin D3
97% of vitamin B1
69% of vitamin E
Nearly 100% of folic acid
And large shares of biotin, calcium, magnesium, iron, and amino acids crucial for both dietary supplements
A snapshot into the SuppCo database shows just how widespread these vitamins are across the supplement market. Over 27,000 products contain vitamin D3, 16,000 feature vitamin B1, 20,000 include vitamin E, and 19,000 list folic acid as an ingredient.
These ingredients aren’t just common in products, they also play a critical role in the supplement “stacks” used by over 67% of SuppCo’s user base of 90,000+:
48% of SuppCo users take Vitamin D
51% of SuppCo users take Vitamin E
23% of SuppCo users take folic acid
With most of these ingredients supplied by China, disruptions in the supply or pricing of these key vitamins could have a widespread impact across both the industry and consumer routines.
Compounding the issue, domestic U.S. production of these nutrients is minimal to nonexistent. This leaves the U.S. heavily dependent on suppliers that are increasingly economically volatile and, at times, hesitant to export to American firms.
Although these vitamins have been technically exempt from the recent tariffs for now, supply is still expected to slow, potentially driving up prices even without direct tariff increases. In recent months, Chinese suppliers have declined orders amid concerns over market instability, political retaliation, and shrinking profit margins. As a result, both pricing pressure and supply risks are emerging.
And these are not niche products—these are foundational inputs for everything from daily vitamins to fortified foods, infant formula, and livestock feed. In animal feed, the impact is specifically dire.
For example, chickens cannot synthesize biotin and require it in their feed to grow properly and produce eggs. If biotin or folic acid becomes scarce or prohibitively expensive due to tariff-driven disruptions, this doesn't just affect the supplement market—it poses a serious threat to food security. The downstream effects could be felt in egg supply, meat production, and other staples that rely on properly nourished livestock, poultry, and pork.
What begins as a technical trade classification issue quickly escalates into a systemic vulnerability with the potential to impact both economic stability and public health.
Adulteration and Cost-Cutting Risks
As the cost of inputs rises and drives up the overall cost of supplements, consumers may move to cheaper, lower-grade substitutes at the same time as these lower-quality players face temptation to cut corners.
For Lower-Quality Manufacturers and Brands:
Many lower-quality manufacturers and brands—especially those producing at scale—may face pressure to maintain profit margins while absorbing new tariffs. This can lead to:
Dilution of product potency
Substitution with lower-quality or unverified raw materials
Sourcing from less reliable international suppliers
Reduced batch testing or quality control procedures
While some companies are actively negotiating with suppliers to share the burden—sometimes with suppliers agreeing to absorb 10–50% of increases—this practice is inconsistent and often not viable for smaller manufacturers.
For Consumers:
SuppCo's users spend an average of $172 per month on their supplements.
As premium, well-formulated supplements become significantly more expensive, customers who already spend meaningfully on supplements may shift toward cheaper alternatives, often from international or lesser-known brands. These alternatives may not adhere to the same quality standards or transparency practices.
The result? A potential race to the bottom in both product quality and consumer safety.
Adulteration doesn’t just degrade product effectiveness—it can introduce serious health risks. And when cost becomes the main decision driver, the temptation for both consumers and producers to prioritize affordability over integrity increases sharply.
A Tipping Point for the Industry
In the short term, the supplement industry is scrambling to adapt. Trade working groups, including the United Natural Products Alliance, are coordinating efforts to:
Advocate for broader ingredient exemptions from tariffs
Share data on tariff code usage and supply impacts
Develop confidential pricing databases to track retail shifts
Engage Customs and Border Protection for clarification on tariff classifications
But the longer-term outlook raises larger questions:
Can the U.S. reshore or diversify production of essential nutrients?
Will the market fracture into a two-tier system of high-quality, high-cost supplements and low-cost, lower-quality knockoffs?
How will rising costs ripple across food production, public health, and nutrition access?
Conclusion: The New Normal?
The current tariff regime may be temporary, but its effects could be lasting. Beyond price tags and supply chain spreadsheets, the real issue is access to essential nutrients—not just for wellness enthusiasts, but for the nation’s food supply at large.
As the supplement aisle transforms under pressure, brands, regulators, and consumers alike must remain vigilant. Quality, transparency, and sourcing integrity are now more important than ever—because the cost of cutting corners isn’t just financial. It’s nutritional.